Google discovered that as the web increased in complexity, the only thing that works is a magic search box. Now Yahoo is stuck. They can’t copy Google because Google already owns “magic search box.” Yahoo’s remaining users don’t want Yahoo to change, and Yahoo’s people and UI have too much inertia. Yahoo can’t catch up because Google is in front, getting bigger, and accelerating all at the same time.
Apple discovered that 1) phones should not have keyboards, 2) you should sell just one model, and 3) the phone with the best apps wins. Now Blackberry is stuck. They not only have to keep selling phones with physical keyboards, they have to keep selling a flip phone, and a scrollball phone, and a trackpad phone, and a touch phone. Meanwhile Apple makes it crystal clear that iPhone is the phone you want, and the phone you want to develop for.
Two things:
I often think about the marketplace and even human behavior in terms of Newtonian physics. It’s all inertia, planetary disk accretion, and gravitational acceleration.
Google and Apple won by eliminating the tyranny of choice for users and by being the best at one thing. They became market leaders by demonstrating leadership: by acting on strong convictions about what’s best for users. It’s the difference between a friend who says, “do you feel like a burger, or Italian, or Chinese, or Thai?” and a friend who says, “hey, let’s get sushi at The Hump because you’ll love it.”